Will there be an End to Covid-19, Coronavirus? An Expert Perspective.
Are enough people willing to get vaccinated? (Infographic by VaxTherapy)
To date, the global pandemic caused more than 30 million Covid-19 cases and claimed a little under 1 million deaths; in the U.S. those numbers are 6.7 million and 200K, respectively. We can’t help but be concerned about how long this coronavirus will continue to be a public health threat.
Remember the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) coronavirus? SARS is related but different from the COVID-19 coronavirus. SARS ended after infecting 8,000 people across 29 countries and territories and 774 deaths globally. That outbreak first started back in 2002 in Asia. The major part of the outbreak lasted about several months and the virus contained around July of 2003. However, several SARS cases were reported well into 2004. One thing to keep in mind though is, SARS didn’t spread person-to-person as easily as Covid-19; the extent of global reach was not as widespread as the Covid-19 coronavirus. That is why many experts think that it is unlikely Covid-19 could be eradicated. But there is hope that it would be possible under the right precautions to remove COVID-19 coronavirus as a public-health threat.
Top infectious-disease expert and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, communicated to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that effective vaccine and public-health measures could put the coronavirus pandemic ‘behind us,’ and let us be able to return to ‘reasonable form of normality’ possible by end of 2021.
Fauci also explained, if you have an effective vaccine and not enough people take it, we won’t realize the full effect of the vaccine. Resistance to the spread of this infectious virus will happen when the right proportion of individuals are vaccinated (or gained long-term protection from a natural infection) to yield collective immune defense—this is called herd immunity—which is central to effective vaccination.
Essentially, removal of Covid-19 as a public-health threat will also depend on diligent, wide vaccine administration along with strong public-health measures. Perhaps only then can we begin to see a light at the end of the tunnel, and per Dr. Fauci, can hopefully return to a degree of normalcy next year. Additionally, he said, “The fundamental goal is to get the level of infection in the country so low that when there are little blips of infection, you can easily control them.”
“With a combination of a good vaccine together with good public health measures, we may be able to put this coronavirus outbreak behind us, the way we put the original SARS behind us,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, told The Wall Street Journal in a video interview. “There will be an end to this, and we will be able to get back to normal.”
Are enough people willing to get a coronavirus vaccine?
It is noteworthy that a global survey revealed that 74% of people are willing to get a COVID-19 vaccine, while the remaining 26% are not willing. The poll was conducted by Ipsos for the World Economic Forum, which surveyed ~20,000 people across 27 countries. Among the most enthusiastic were the people from China. On the other hand, people from Russia are least willing to take a coronavirus vaccine if available. As for the Americans, 67% said they would get the vaccine while 33% were not that interested. Of those who said they would refuse, 60% gave a reason for suspected side-effects, which is their biggest worry, and 37% said they question effectiveness. But the concern is, would vaccination of 74% of the people suffice? Unfortunately, according to the Head of shaping the future of health and healthcare at the World Economic Forum, Arnaud Bernaert, “The 26% shortfall in vaccine confidence is significant enough to compromise the effectiveness of rolling out a Covid-19 vaccine.”
How long will it take to get most Americans vaccinated (at least for those who are willing to be vaccinated)?
A Covid-19 coronavirus vaccine could be available sometime between November and December of 2020 in very limited supply to the high-risk individuals and would have to be prioritized when released to the general public. The general public will likely get the vaccines in 2021, granted there aren’t any delays due to safety concerns. See Impacts of Astrazeneca’s Covid-19 Vaccine Trial Pause. Also stay up-to-date with the latest advancements in the development of COVID-19 Vaccines (this post is frequently updated in our blog), and the Covid-19 Vaccine Distribution Plan.
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